Nick Parsons presentation, often backed up with evidence from the Treasury’s own figures, explored the 2008 recession in the context of previous recessions and the how other countries have fared. He also carefully explained the linkages between GDP, house price inflation and retail spending.

In one sobering example he informed the audience that the cumulative level of UK debt over the past 400 years amounts to about £700bn which is about to be doubled in the next five years. He challenged the government’s growth projections of 3.25% for the four years from 2011/12 pointing out that, even at the height of the boom, growth in GDP was only 3.6%.

He warned of tough times ahead with tight bank lending, increased taxes and reduced consumption as households tried to reduce their debt burden – the largest in the world.

Click here to download Notes on Nick Parsons presentation