The three broad outlines are:

• renewed confidence
• sharper cycle
• doldrums.

In all three the recovery doesn’t start to get under way until 2010 but then, depending on ‘events’, three very different scenarios emerge with consumer spending, business investment and global growth being the key factors.

What happens to consumer spending (62% of GDP in 2008) is possibly the most important in the UK. In the ‘renewed confidence’ scenario, households repair their finances quickly, confidence returns equally quickly and consumer spending resumes although perhaps not at the fierce pace of the past decade. World trade also recovers, promoting export growth.

In the ‘sharper cycle’ it takes longer to get a recovery, perhaps delayed until 2011, but when it comes it is stronger in all three areas - consumer spending, investment and world trade. A deep fall into the recession is followed by a very high bounce and the world breathes a sigh of relief.

If the economy stays in the 'doldrums', however, we are looking at a period in which the world economy is slow to come out of recession, consumer spending falls for three straight years and only picks up slowly thereafter. To make matters worse business investment is feeble during this period. Recovery would only really start to be noticed in 2012 and then at a weak pace.

The governor of the Bank of England has admitted that he doesn’t know which scenario is the most likley but what does seem likely is that even a decent recovery will be accompanied by painful adjustments in spending and much higher taxes.