The influential economist David Blanchflower who was the only member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee that predicted the coming recession before it arrived, has called the latest figures showing that 18-24 year olds are bearing the brunt of the rise in unemployment “scary”.

The fastest rate of increase in unemployment is found among this age group, which is typically less immediately productive to employers because of the degree of on-the-job training that is needed. In Britain there were 597,000 18 to 24 year olds out of work in October 2008 – a 10 percent increase on the previous quarter.

It is anticipated that young people will constitute 40% of the total when unemployment reaches its peak in the coming months.

In Brighton & Hove, due to a shortage of high-level jobs, there is already a problem with graduates competing with lower skilled workers for entry-level jobs. This distances the low skilled further from the labour market than they would otherwise be and the situation may get worse as graduate recruitment opportunities dry up even further.

It will also make it very difficult for Brighton & Hove to meet the target set in its Local Area Agreement (LAA - a performance contract between the local authority and central government) to reduce the numbers of those young people Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEETS) over the next three years from it current level of just below 10% of the working-age population.

Since this was one of the most popular targets included in 78% of the 150 LAAs across the UK (see earlier story), we are unlikely to be alone in failing to reach it. One ray of light is that our burgeoning creative industries sector seems to have a greater appetite than most for graduates and is less vulnerable to recession than others although, as problems at Eidos demonstrate, not entirely immune.

Brighton's NEET problem is principally with 17 year olds. The city is quite good at persuading 16 year olds to stay on for further education but too many drop out to become NEET at 17 before completing their courses.

The government hopes that raising the school leaving age to a compulsory 17 in 2013 and 18 by 2015 will solve the problem of NEETs and raise the level of qualifications of young people leaving education. There are rumours that the leaving age could be raised sooner than 2013, perhaps as early as the autumn of 2009, in response to the rising youth unemployment problem.

A policy that would keep young people off the jobless register has obvious political appeal but it would require additional funding to schools to ensure they have the capacity and it may just transform the NEET issue into a different type of problem.

Forcing 16 to 18 year olds to stay at school against their will may result in behaviour that is similar to that shown by under-16 year olds in their final year at school.

The percentage of UK pupils who are classed as “frequently absent” (i.e. missing at least 20% of lessons) from secondary school increases from 3% in year seven at the start of secondary education to 11% in year eleven.

Nationally in 2007 the number of young people classed as NEET after finishing school was just over 9% of the 16-18 age group (and 14% of the 16-24 age group). If pupils are forced to stay at school there is a good chance that they will cease being NEET and simply become “frequently absent”.