The predictions are expected to form the core of The Stern Review, commissioned by the Cabinet Office and the Treasury in July 2005, and due to be released on Monday. It is important because it looks at economic, not environmental, arguments surrounding climate change.

The report is expected to carry weight with governments because Sir Nicholas, a former World Bank economist, is seen as a neutral figure whose conclusions are likely to be accepted as objective and based on undisputed economic fact.

The report is intended to promote better understanding of the economic challenges presented by global warming and how they could be met in the UK and around the world.

Meanwhile the European Commission published figures on Friday 27th October showing that, apart from the UK, the EU zone is falling woefully short of reaching its CO2 emissions targets under the Kyoto protocol. New figures suggest that emissions in 2010 may even be slightly higher than they were in 2004.

The 25 governments of the EU have set targets of up to 30% reductions by 2020 and 80% by 2050 but seven countries will exceed their emissions limits which are binding under EU law. Spain is expected to exceed EU emissions by just over 51% in 2010 compared to an allowed increase of just 15% under Kyoto.

Spain is enjoying economic growth of just under 4% but extreme weather has obliged it to use more fossil fuels. Ireland is projected to reach 30% above 1990 levels by 2010 against an allowance of 13% and Portugal nearly 43% against an allowance of 27%.

Only Britain, which is expected to cut emissions by just over 23% against Kyoto limit of 12.5% and Sweden, which is likely to achieve a 1% cut, are on track to meet or exceed their targets.

Sir David King, the government’s chief scientific advisor, warned ahead of tomorrow’s Stern Report that we could be facing the kind of economic downturn last seen in the great depression between the two world wars.